Adverse Effects of COVID-19 Vaccination: Machine Learning and Statistical Approach to Identify and Classify Incidences of Morbidity and Postvaccination Reactogenicity.

Good vaccine safety and reliability are essential for successfully countering infectious disease spread. A small but significant number of adverse reactions to COVID-19 vaccines have been reported. Here, we aim to identify possible common factors in such adverse reactions to enable strategies that reduce the incidence of such reactions by using patient data to classify and characterise those at risk. We examined patient medical histories and data documenting postvaccination effects and outcomes. The data analyses were conducted using a range of statistical approaches followed by a series of machine learning classification algorithms. In most cases, a group of similar features was significantly associated with poor patient reactions. These included patient prior illnesses, admission to hospitals and SARS-CoV-2 reinfection. The analyses indicated that patient age, gender, taking other medications, type-2 diabetes, hypertension, allergic history and heart disease are the most significant pre-existing factors associated with the risk of poor outcome. In addition, long duration of hospital treatments, dyspnoea, various kinds of pain, headache, cough, asthenia, and physical disability were the most significant clinical predictors. The machine learning classifiers that are trained with medical history were also able to predict patients with complication-free vaccination and have an accuracy score above 90%. Our study identifies profiles of individuals that may need extra monitoring and care (e.g., vaccination at a location with access to comprehensive clinical support) to reduce negative outcomes through classification approaches.

Feature fusion based VGGFusionNet model to detect COVID-19 patients utilizing computed tomography scan images.

COVID-19 is one of the most life-threatening and dangerous diseases caused by the novel Coronavirus, which has already afflicted a larger human community worldwide. This pandemic disease recovery is possible if detected in the early stage. We proposed an automated deep learning approach from Computed Tomography (CT) scan images to detect COVID-19 positive patients by following a four-phase paradigm for COVID-19 detection: preprocess the CT scan images; remove noise from test image by using anisotropic diffusion techniques; make a different segment for the preprocessed images; and train and test COVID-19 detection using Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) models. This study employed well-known pre-trained models, including AlexNet, ResNet50, VGG16 and VGG19 to evaluate experiments. 80% of images are used to train the network in the detection process, while the remaining 20% are used to test it. The result of the experiment evaluation confirmed that the VGG19 pre-trained CNN model achieved better accuracy (98.06%). We used 4861 real-life COVID-19 CT images for experiment purposes, including 3068 positive and 1793 negative images. These images were acquired from a hospital in Sao Paulo, Brazil and two other different data sources. Our proposed method revealed very high accuracy and, therefore, can be used as an assistant to help professionals detect COVID-19 patients accurately.

How do economic and public finance statuses affect policy responses during a pandemic? - learning from the COVID-19 first wave.

BACKGROUND: In the time of a pandemic, it is typical for public health bodies to collaborate with epidemiologists to design health policies both at national and international levels for controlling the spread. A point largely overlooked in literature is the extent economic capability and public finance status can influence the policy responses of countries during a pandemic situation. This article fills this gap by considering 12 public health and 7 economic measures (i.e., policies) in 200 countries during the COVID-19 first wave, with countries grouped across income categories. METHODS: We apply statistical analysis, inclusive of regression models, to assess the impact of economic capability and public finance status on policy responses. Multiple open-access datasets are used in this research, and information from the hybrid sources are cumulated as samples. In our analysis, we consider variables including population characteristics (population size, density) and economic and public finance status (GDR, current account balance, government surplus/deficit) further to policy responses across public health and economic measures. Additionally, we consider infection rates across countries and the institution of the measures relative to infection rate. RESULTS: Results suggest that countries from all income groups have favoured public health measures like school closures and travel bans, and economic measures like influencing interest rates. However, strong economy countries have more adopted technological monitoring than low-income countries. Contrarily, low-income countries have preferred traditional measures like curfew and obligatory mask-wearing. GDP per capita was a statistically significant factor influencing the institution of both public health and economic measures. Government finance statuses like current account balance and surplus/deficit were also significant factors influencing economic measures. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the research reveals that, further to biological characteristics, policymakers and epidemiologists can consider the economic and public finance contexts when suggesting health responses to a pandemic. This, in turn, calls for more international cooperation on economic terms further to public health terms.

Source Code for Optimized Parallel Inception: A Fast COVID-19 Screening Software.

COVID-19 and swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) are both pandemics that sparked significant concern worldwide. These two viruses have the same symptoms and occur at a collision timeline. Optimized Parallel Inception (OPI) presents a new strategy to screen the COVID-19 from H1N1 with use of only symptoms. In this paper, the process of preprocessing, screening, and specifying feature importance by OPI and particle swarm optimization is presented. Experimental results indicate 98.88 accuracy for screening COVID-19, H1N1, and Neither COVID-19 Nor H1N1.

Comparing the Impact of Road Networks on COVID-19 Severity between Delta and Omicron Variants: A Study Based on Greater Sydney (Australia) Suburbs.

The Omicron and Delta variants of COVID-19 have recently become the most dominant virus strains worldwide. A recent study on the Delta variant found that a suburban road network provides a reliable proxy for human mobility to explore COVID-19 severity. This study first examines the impact of road networks on COVID-19 severity for the Omicron variant using the infection and road connections data from Greater Sydney, Australia. We then compare the findings of this study with a recent study that used the infection data of the Delta variant for the same region. In analysing the road network, we used four centrality measures (degree, closeness, betweenness and eigenvector) and the coreness measure. We developed two multiple linear regression models for Delta and Omicron variants using the same set of independent and dependent variables. Only eigenvector is a statistically significant predictor for COVID-19 severity for the Omicron variant. On the other hand, both degree and eigenvector are statistically significant predictors for the Delta variant, as found in a recent study considered for comparison. We further found a statistical difference (p < 0.05) between the R-squared values for these two multiple linear regression models. Our findings point to an important difference in the transmission nature of Delta and Omicron variants, which could provide practical insights into understanding their infectious nature and developing appropriate control strategies accordingly.

Fast COVID-19 versus H1N1 screening using Optimized Parallel Inception.

COVID-19 and swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) are both pandemics that sparked significant concern worldwide. Since these two diseases have common symptoms, a fast COVID-19 versus H1N1 screening helps better manage patients at healthcare facilities. We present a novel deep model, called Optimized Parallel Inception, for fast screening of COVID-19 and H1N1 patients. We also present a Semi-supervised Generative Adversarial Network (SGAN) to address the problem related to the smaller size of the COVID-19 and H1N1 research data. To evaluate the proposed models, we have merged two separate COVID-19 and H1N1 data from different sources to build a new dataset. The created dataset includes 4,383 positive COVID-19 cases, 989 positive H1N1 cases, and 1,059 negative cases. We applied SGAN on this dataset to remove issues related to unequal class densities. The experimental results show that the proposed model's screening accuracy is 99.2% and 99.6% for COVID-19 and H1N1, respectively. According to our analysis, the most significant symptoms and underlying chronic diseases for COVID-19 versus H1N1 screening are dry cough, breathing problems, diabetes, and gastrointestinal.

Suburban Road Networks to Explore COVID-19 Vulnerability and Severity.

The Delta variant of COVID-19 has been found to be extremely difficult to contain worldwide. The complex dynamics of human mobility and the variable intensity of local outbreaks make measuring the factors of COVID-19 transmission a challenge. The inter-suburb road connection details provide a reliable proxy of the moving options for people between suburbs for a given region. By using such data from Greater Sydney, Australia, this study explored the impact of suburban road networks on two COVID-19-related outcomes measures. The first measure is COVID-19 vulnerability, which gives a low score to a more vulnerable suburb. A suburb is more vulnerable if it has the first COVID-19 case earlier and vice versa. The second measure is COVID-19 severity, which is proportionate to the number of COVID-19-positive cases for a suburb. To analyze the suburban road network, we considered four centrality measures (degree, closeness, betweenness and eigenvector) and core-periphery structure. We found that the degree centrality measure of the suburban road network was a strong and statistically significant predictor for both COVID-19 vulnerability and severity. Closeness centrality and eigenvector centrality were also statistically significant predictors for COVID-19 vulnerability and severity, respectively. The findings of this study could provide practical insights to stakeholders and policymakers to develop timely strategies and policies to prevent and contain any highly infectious pandemics, including the Delta variant of COVID-19.

A deep learning approach using effective preprocessing techniques to detect COVID-19 from chest CT-scan and X-ray images.

Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) is a severe respiratory viral disease first reported in late 2019 that has spread worldwide. Although some wealthy countries have made significant progress in detecting and containing this disease, most underdeveloped countries are still struggling to identify COVID-19 cases in large populations. With the rising number of COVID-19 cases, there are often insufficient COVID-19 diagnostic kits and related resources in such countries. However, other basic diagnostic resources often do exist, which motivated us to develop Deep Learning models to assist clinicians and radiologists to provide prompt diagnostic support to the patients. In this study, we have developed a deep learning-based COVID-19 case detection model trained with a dataset consisting of chest CT scans and X-ray images. A modified ResNet50V2 architecture was employed as deep learning architecture in the proposed model. The dataset utilized to train the model was collected from various publicly available sources and included four class labels: confirmed COVID-19, normal controls and confirmed viral and bacterial pneumonia cases. The aggregated dataset was preprocessed through a sharpening filter before feeding the dataset into the proposed model. This model attained an accuracy of 96.452% for four-class cases (COVID-19/Normal/Bacterial pneumonia/Viral pneumonia), 97.242% for three-class cases (COVID-19/Normal/Bacterial pneumonia) and 98.954% for two-class cases (COVID-19/Viral pneumonia) using chest X-ray images. The model acquired a comprehensive accuracy of 99.012% for three-class cases (COVID-19/Normal/Community-acquired pneumonia) and 99.99% for two-class cases (Normal/COVID-19) using CT-scan images of the chest. This high accuracy presents a new and potentially important resource to enable radiologists to identify and rapidly diagnose COVID-19 cases with only basic but widely available equipment.

Identifying molecular insight of synergistic complexities for SARS-CoV-2 infection with pre-existing type 2 diabetes.

The ongoing COVID-19 outbreak, caused by SARS-CoV-2, has posed a massive threat to global public health, especially to people with underlying health conditions. Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is lethal comorbidity of COVID-19. However, its pathogenetic link remains unclear. This research aims to determine the genetic factors and processes contributing to the synergistic severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection among T2D patients through bioinformatics approaches. We analyzed two sets of transcriptomic data of SARS-CoV-2 infection obtained from lung epithelium cells and PBMCs, and two sets of T2D data from pancreatic islet cells and PBMCs to identify the associated differentially expressed genes (DEGs) followed by their functional enrichment analyses in terms of protein-protein interaction (PPI) to detect hub-proteins and associated comorbidities, transcription factors (TFs), microRNAs (miRNAs) as well as the potential drug candidates. In PPI analysis, four potential hub-proteins (i.e., BIRC3, C3, MME, and IL1B) were identified among 25 DEGs shared between the disease pair. Enrichment analyses using the mutually overlapped DEGs revealed the most prevalent GO and cell signalling pathways, including TNF signalling, cytokine-cytokine receptor interaction, and IL-17 signalling, which are related to cytokine activities. Furthermore, as significant TFs, we identified IRF1, KLF11, FOSL1, and CREB3L1 while miRNAs including miR-1-3p, 34a-5p, 16-5p, 155-5p, 20a-5p, and let-7b-5p were found to be noteworthy. The findings illustrated the significant association between COVID-19 and T2D at the molecular level. These genetic determinants can further be explored for their specific roles in disease progression and therapeutic intervention, while significant pathways can also be studied as molecular checkpoints. Finally, the identified drug candidates may be evaluated for their potency to minimize the severity of COVID-19 patients with pre-existing T2D.

TClustVID: A novel machine learning classification model to investigate topics and sentiment in COVID-19 tweets.

COVID-19, caused by SARS-CoV2 infection, varies greatly in its severity but presents with serious respiratory symptoms with vascular and other complications, particularly in older adults. The disease can be spread by both symptomatic and asymptomatic infected individuals. Uncertainty remains over key aspects of the virus infectiousness (particularly the newly emerging variants) and the disease has had severe economic impacts globally. For these reasons, COVID-19 is the subject of intense and widespread discussion on social media platforms including Facebook and Twitter. These public forums substantially influence public opinions and in some cases can exacerbate the widespread panic and misinformation spread during the crisis. Thus, this work aimed to design an intelligent clustering-based classification and topic extracting model named TClustVID that analyzes COVID-19-related public tweets to extract significant sentiments with high accuracy. We gathered COVID-19 Twitter datasets from the IEEE Dataport repository and employed a range of data preprocessing methods to clean the raw data, then applied tokenization and produced a word-to-index dictionary. Thereafter, different classifications were employed on these datasets which enabled the exploration of the performance of traditional classification and TClustVID. Our analysis found that TClustVID showed higher performance compared to traditional methodologies that are determined by clustering criteria. Finally, we extracted significant topics from the clusters, split them into positive, neutral and negative sentiments, and identified the most frequent topics using the proposed model. This approach is able to rapidly identify commonly prevailing aspects of public opinions and attitudes related to COVID-19 and infection prevention strategies spreading among different populations.

Machine Learning Approach to Predicting COVID-19 Disease Severity Based on Clinical Blood Test Data: Statistical Analysis and Model Development.

BACKGROUND: Accurate prediction of the disease severity of patients with COVID-19 would greatly improve care delivery and resource allocation and thereby reduce mortality risks, especially in less developed countries. Many patient-related factors, such as pre-existing comorbidities, affect disease severity and can be used to aid this prediction. OBJECTIVE: Because rapid automated profiling of peripheral blood samples is widely available, we aimed to investigate how data from the peripheral blood of patients with COVID-19 can be used to predict clinical outcomes. METHODS: We investigated clinical data sets of patients with COVID-19 with known outcomes by combining statistical comparison and correlation methods with machine learning algorithms; the latter included decision tree, random forest, variants of gradient boosting machine, support vector machine, k-nearest neighbor, and deep learning methods. RESULTS: Our work revealed that several clinical parameters that are measurable in blood samples are factors that can discriminate between healthy people and COVID-19-positive patients, and we showed the value of these parameters in predicting later severity of COVID-19 symptoms. We developed a number of analytical methods that showed accuracy and precision scores >90% for disease severity prediction. CONCLUSIONS: We developed methodologies to analyze routine patient clinical data that enable more accurate prediction of COVID-19 patient outcomes. With this approach, data from standard hospital laboratory analyses of patient blood could be used to identify patients with COVID-19 who are at high risk of mortality, thus enabling optimization of hospital facilities for COVID-19 treatment.

Onslaught of COVID-19: How Did Governments React and at What Point of the Crisis?

The COVID-19 outbreak has taken many governments by surprise. While the crisis unfolds, it is instructive to explore how different governments reacted to the onslaught of an unknown disease. This research, using very recently collected and open-source data, meets this objective. The research reveals that, regarding 7 most commonly adopted preventive measures, governments have varied notably concerning their actions in relation to infection rate, disease rate, and timing of measures. The research also illustrates variations between governments for 6 countries: Australia, New Zealand, Spain, the United Kingdom, Italy, and the United States. As revealed in the summary independent-samples t test and Hedges' g values, both Oceanian countries (Australia and New Zealand) reacted differently compared to the other countries, which may have played a role in their low death and infection rates to date.

How did socio-demographic status and personal attributes influence compliance to COVID-19 preventive behaviours during the early outbreak in Japan? Lessons for pandemic management.

This study focuses on how socio-demographic status and personal attributes influence self-protective behaviours during a pandemic, with protection behaviours being assessed through three perspectives - social distancing, personal protection behaviour and social responsibility awareness. The research considers a publicly available and recently collected dataset on Japanese citizens during the COVID-19 early outbreak and utilises a data analysis framework combining Classification and Regression Tree (CART), a data mining approach, and regression analysis to gain deep insights. The analysis reveals Socio-demographic attributes - sex, marital family status and having children - as having played an influential role in Japanese citizens' abiding by the COVID-19 protection behaviours. Especially women with children are noted as more conscious than their male counterparts. Work status also appears to have some impact concerning social distancing. Trust in government also appears as a significant factor. The analysis further identifies smoking behaviour as a factor characterising subjective prevention actions with non-smokers or less-frequent smokers being more compliant to the protection behaviours. Overall, the findings imply the need of public policy campaigning to account for variations in protection behaviour due to socio-demographic and personal attributes during pandemics and national emergencies.

A machine learning model to identify early stage symptoms of SARS-Cov-2 infected patients.

The recent outbreak of the respiratory ailment COVID-19 caused by novel coronavirus SARS-Cov2 is a severe and urgent global concern. In the absence of effective treatments, the main containment strategy is to reduce the contagion by the isolation of infected individuals; however, isolation of unaffected individuals is highly undesirable. To help make rapid decisions on treatment and isolation needs, it would be useful to determine which features presented by suspected infection cases are the best predictors of a positive diagnosis. This can be done by analyzing patient characteristics, case trajectory, comorbidities, symptoms, diagnosis, and outcomes. We developed a model that employed supervised machine learning algorithms to identify the presentation features predicting COVID-19 disease diagnoses with high accuracy. Features examined included details of the individuals concerned, e.g., age, gender, observation of fever, history of travel, and clinical details such as the severity of cough and incidence of lung infection. We implemented and applied several machine learning algorithms to our collected data and found that the XGBoost algorithm performed with the highest accuracy (>85%) to predict and select features that correctly indicate COVID-19 status for all age groups. Statistical analyses revealed that the most frequent and significant predictive symptoms are fever (41.1%), cough (30.3%), lung infection (13.1%) and runny nose (8.43%). While 54.4% of people examined did not develop any symptoms that could be used for diagnosis, our work indicates that for the remainder, our predictive model could significantly improve the prediction of COVID-19 status, including at early stages of infection.